Demand for Nursing Facilities: Planning for tomorrow

Consider you are planning a remodeling or replacement of a nursing facility for your organization.  A 2010 report by the Standford Center on Longevity titled "New Realities of an Older America" should be required reading. Here are some facts:

In 2004, most nursing home residents were 85+.
There were 1.3 million people 65+  living in nursing homes in 2004.
The oldest old, 85+, are more likely to live in nursing homes; in 2004,
14% of the 85+ population lived in nursing homes, but only 3.6% o the
75-84 year olds did.

In the year 2031, the first boomers will start turning age 85.
The number of people requiring nursing home care will likely increase as the number of 85 year olds increases.
If nursing home residency rates of the population 85+ remain at the 2004 level of 14%, there will be 1.2 million people 85+ in nursing homes by 2030, more than doubling to 2.6 million by 2050.

Major questions for future planning:
In the year 2031, what types of services will the boomers need and desire?
What types of housing, assisted living, memory care, social support services and nursing facilities would meet those desires and needs?
Will the new generation have the resources to pay for those services?
Can you build bricks and mortar so that it can be modified after ten years for another use?

In my view, here are the trends of the future:

1. We will see a decrease in long term care beds, but an increase usage of those beds with emphasis on rehabilitation and outpatient services.
2. Assisted living will become more regulated and future clients needs will mirror the needs of nursing home residents today.
3. Home and community based services will be integrated into more managed care approaches with government providing increased funding.
4. Housing with new technologies will enable persons to remain in their own homes.
5. Providers that survive and flourish will be diversified with a variety of housing, health, wellness and social support programs that reach beyond their own four walls.